SpaceX’s $116bn Share Unlock Nears as SPCX Hits New Lows

SpaceX is approaching a potential $116 billion share unlock, with restrictions on sales by some insiders due to lift on 6 August — two days after the company publishes its first earnings report as a public business. Up to 911.5 million shares could become eligible for sale, putting the recently listed SPCX stock under fresh scrutiny after a sharp fall from its June high.

The rocket, satellite and artificial intelligence company confirmed on 22 July that it will report second-quarter results on 4 August. Under the terms of its IPO lock-up, that report clears the way for investors to sell up to 20% of their eligible locked-up holdings on the second full trading day afterwards. The date matters because SpaceX floated only weeks ago, in what it described as the largest initial public offering in history.

SPCX is trading near its lowest level

SpaceX shares closed at $114.25 on 24 July, down from a previous close of $118.24. During the session, the stock traded between $111.40 and $116.74. Its 52-week range is now $110.85 to $225.64, with the low reached on 23 July and the all-time high recorded on 16 June.

The decline has been swift. SpaceX began trading on 12 June after selling 555,555,555 Class A shares at $135 each, raising $75 billion. The shares opened at $150 and closed their first day at $160.95, a 19% gain. At that point, the company was valued at roughly $2.1 trillion, slightly above Tesla. Its starting market capitalisation at the IPO price was $1.75 trillion.

Unlike a conventional listing, around 30% of the public shares were reserved for retail investors. That gave UK buyers a route into a flotation which had previously been difficult for individual investors to access.

What the lock-up expiry actually means

The 6 August event is not an instruction to sell $116 billion of stock, nor does it mean that amount will necessarily reach the market. It removes restrictions that have prevented certain holders from selling. The scale of the eligible pool, however, makes it an important test of demand for SpaceX shares after their volatile first six weeks on the market.

• The first release covers nearly 20% of locked shares, or as many as 911.5 million shares.
• Smaller tranches of roughly 7% are due through August, September and October.
• A larger release is linked to third-quarter earnings, while the 180-day batch clears in December.
• More than 5.3 billion shares could be available for trading by early December, compared with roughly 639 million now.

A further 455.8 million shares could be released under a separate condition, but the hurdle currently looks remote. SPCX would need to trade at least 30% above its $135 IPO price — or $175.50 — for five out of 10 trading days around the earnings report. At about $114, the stock is well short of that threshold.

Elon Musk’s 6.4 billion shares remain locked until June 2027 and have no early-release provision. Musk’s stake, together with holdings of other major pre-IPO investors, accounts for roughly 60% of SpaceX’s 13 billion shares outstanding. Goldman Sachs, the lead underwriter, can also waive certain lock-up restrictions before scheduled expiry dates.

Heavy short interest raises the stakes

According to S3 Partners, short interest in SpaceX has risen from roughly 40 million shares a month ago to more than 206 million shares. That is around 32% of the tradable float and represents $25 billion in notional bearish bets. The firm said SPCX has become the most widely shorted newly listed stock Wall Street has tracked.

That unusually large short position could amplify the reaction in either direction. Greater selling from eligible holders would increase supply, but unexpectedly strong earnings or limited selling after the lock-up could force bearish traders to buy shares back quickly. Musk has warned bears that their survival probability is “very low”, but short positions have continued to expand before the expiry.

Expensive stock, ambitious spending

SpaceX has posted a net loss of approximately $4.3 billion, compared with a loss of about $528 million a year earlier, as spending on Starship, AI infrastructure and research weighed on earnings. Its first-quarter AI-related capital expenditure rose to $7.7 billion, around three times the prior-year level. Morgan Stanley analysts expect xAI to consume up to $120 billion in cash across 2026 and 2027.

Despite the pullback, SPCX trades at around 49 times expected revenue. S&P Global’s poll of 34 analysts gives the stock a consensus Buy rating and an average price target of $236.71, although estimates range widely from $62 to $800. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has a $300 target, citing the company’s vertically integrated model and long-term growth opportunities.

“We think at this level, it's relatively safe to at least be involved from a trading perspective. We won't overweight it because they do have the lockup coming.”

For UK investors, the calendar now matters as much as the headline earnings figures. Marex Financial said UK retail investors took up 2.7 million shares at a sterling IPO price of £100.65, worth £271.4 million in total. Those buyers are now significantly underwater in sterling terms at current exchange rates. The 4 August results and the 6 August unlock will show whether SpaceX can steady its public-market debut, or whether the availability of more stock creates another difficult chapter for SPCX.